Estimated spring crop yields using Flex Cropping Tool
Average estimated yields and associated CV values for current (2018) model runs. Based on work done by Harsimran Kaur et al in 2017. The following is from her thesis:
Agro-ecological classes (AECs) of dryland cropping systems in the inland Pacific Northwest have been predicted to become more dynamic with greater use of annual fallow under projected climate change. At the same time, initiatives are being taken by growers either to intensify or diversify their cropping systems using oilseed and grain legume crops. The main objective of this study was to use a mechanistic model (CropSyst) to provide yield and soil water forecasts at regional scales which could compare fallow versus spring crop choices (flex/opportunity crop). Model simulations were based on historic weather data (1981-2010) as well as combined with actual year weather data for simulations at pre-planting dates starting in Dec. for representative years. Yield forecasts of spring pea, canola and wheat were compared to yield simulations using only weather of the representative year via linear regression analysis to assess pre-plant forecasts. Crop yield projections on pre-plant forecast date of Feb 1st had higher R2 with yield simulated using actual years weather data and lower CVs across the region as compared to forecasts based on historic weather data and other pre-season forecast dates (Dec. 1st and Jan. 1st). Therefore, Feb. 1st was considered the most reliable time to predict yield and other relevant outputs such as available water forecasts on a regional scale. Regional forecast maps of predicted spring crop yields and CVs showed ranges of 1 to 4367 kg/ha and 11 to 293% for spring canola, 72 to 2646 kg/ha and 11 to 143% for spring pea and 39 to 5330 kg/ha and 11 to 158% for spring wheat across study region for a representative year. These data combined with predicted available water after fallow and following spring crop yield as well as estimates of winter wheat yield reduction would collectively serve as information contributing to decisions related to crop intensification and diversification.
Simple
- Date ( Creation )
- 2018-03-21
- Purpose
- Decision aid for planting spring crop in inland pacific northwest
- Status
- Completed
- Maintenance and update frequency
- Not planned
- FIPS State/County Codes ( Theme )
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- Washington=53
- GCMD Locations ( Place )
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- CONTINENT > NORTH AMERICA > UNITED STATES OF AMERICA > WASHINGTON
- National Agricultural Library Thesaurus (NALT) ( Theme )
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- agroecology
- arid lands
- fallow
- climate change
- growers
- oilseeds
- crops
- mechanistic models
- soil water
- spring
- simulation models
- meteorological data
- peas
- canola
- regression analysis
- crop yield
- spring wheat
- Keywords
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- agriculture, dryland farming, spring wheat, spring pea, spring canola
- Data Source Affiliation ( Theme )
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- United States Department of Agriculture > Agricultural Research Service > Long-Term Agroecosystem Research > R.J. Cook Agronomy Farm
- NRCS Major Land Resource Areas ( Theme )
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- Northwestern Wheat and Range Region=B
- Ag Data Commons Keywords ( Theme )
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- Agroecosystems & Environment
- Ag Data Commons Project Name ( Theme )
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- Long-Term Agroecosystem Research - LTAR
- R. J. Cook Agronomy Farm
- Federal Program Inventory ( Theme )
-
- Department of Agriculture=5 > National Research=005:040
- OMB Bureau Codes ( Theme )
-
- Department of Agriculture=5 > Agricultural Research Service=005:018
- Crossref Funding ( Theme )
-
- Agricultural Research Service
- Access constraints
- otherRestictions
- Use constraints
- otherRestictions
- Spatial representation type
- Vector
Spatial resolution
- Metadata language
- en
- Character set
- UTF8
- Topic category
-
- Farming
- Environment
- Biota
- Begin date
- 2014-11-01
- End date
- 2014-11-01
- Reference system identifier
-
WGS 1984
Spatial representation info
- Distribution format
-
-
TIFF
(
)
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TIFF
(
)
- OnLine resource
- Spring canola CV ( WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link )
- OnLine resource
- Spring canola yield ( WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link )
- OnLine resource
- Spring pea CV ( WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link )
- OnLine resource
- Spring pea yield ( WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link )
- OnLine resource
- Spring wheat CV ( WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link )
- OnLine resource
- Spring wheat yield ( WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link )
- Statement
- Discuss amount of knowledge of data quality
- Hierarchy level
- Dataset
- Statement
- Discuss knowledge of data acquisation, proceesing and analysis. Add processing steps for details.
- File identifier
- 459d2dba-a346-4e54-9750-ef3178c18f38 XML
- Metadata language
- en
- Character set
- UTF8
- Date stamp
- 2019-08-27T16:56:20
- Metadata standard name
- ISO 19115:2003/19139
- Metadata standard version
- 1.0
https://www.ars.usda.gov/pacific-west-area/tucson-az/southwest-watershed-research-center/
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