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Estimated spring crop yields using Flex Cropping Tool

Average estimated yields and associated CV values for current (2018) model runs. Based on work done by Harsimran Kaur et al in 2017. The following is from her thesis:

Agro-ecological classes (AECs) of dryland cropping systems in the inland Pacific Northwest have been predicted to become more dynamic with greater use of annual fallow under projected climate change. At the same time, initiatives are being taken by growers either to intensify or diversify their cropping systems using oilseed and grain legume crops. The main objective of this study was to use a mechanistic model (CropSyst) to provide yield and soil water forecasts at regional scales which could compare fallow versus spring crop choices (flex/opportunity crop). Model simulations were based on historic weather data (1981-2010) as well as combined with actual year weather data for simulations at pre-planting dates starting in Dec. for representative years. Yield forecasts of spring pea, canola and wheat were compared to yield simulations using only weather of the representative year via linear regression analysis to assess pre-plant forecasts. Crop yield projections on pre-plant forecast date of Feb 1st had higher R2 with yield simulated using actual years weather data and lower CVs across the region as compared to forecasts based on historic weather data and other pre-season forecast dates (Dec. 1st and Jan. 1st). Therefore, Feb. 1st was considered the most reliable time to predict yield and other relevant outputs such as available water forecasts on a regional scale. Regional forecast maps of predicted spring crop yields and CVs showed ranges of 1 to 4367 kg/ha and 11 to 293% for spring canola, 72 to 2646 kg/ha and 11 to 143% for spring pea and 39 to 5330 kg/ha and 11 to 158% for spring wheat across study region for a representative year. These data combined with predicted available water after fallow and following spring crop yield as well as estimates of winter wheat yield reduction would collectively serve as information contributing to decisions related to crop intensification and diversification.

Simple

Date ( Creation )
2018-03-21
Purpose
Decision aid for planting spring crop in inland pacific northwest
Status
Completed
Principal investigator
  USDA-ARS NSAR - David Huggins ( )
Custodian
  USDA-ARS NSAR - Bryan Carlson
Publisher
  USDA Agricultural Research Service -
Maintenance and update frequency
Not planned
FIPS State/County Codes ( Theme )
  • Washington=53
GCMD Locations ( Place )
  • CONTINENT > NORTH AMERICA > UNITED STATES OF AMERICA > WASHINGTON
National Agricultural Library Thesaurus (NALT) ( Theme )
  • agroecology
  • arid lands
  • fallow
  • climate change
  • growers
  • oilseeds
  • crops
  • mechanistic models
  • soil water
  • spring
  • simulation models
  • meteorological data
  • peas
  • canola
  • regression analysis
  • crop yield
  • spring wheat
Keywords
  • agriculture, dryland farming, spring wheat, spring pea, spring canola
Data Source Affiliation ( Theme )
  • United States Department of Agriculture > Agricultural Research Service > Long-Term Agroecosystem Research > R.J. Cook Agronomy Farm
NRCS Major Land Resource Areas ( Theme )
  • Northwestern Wheat and Range Region=B
Ag Data Commons Keywords ( Theme )
  • Agroecosystems & Environment
Ag Data Commons Project Name ( Theme )
  • Long-Term Agroecosystem Research - LTAR
  • R. J. Cook Agronomy Farm
Federal Program Inventory ( Theme )
  • Department of Agriculture=5 > National Research=005:040
OMB Bureau Codes ( Theme )
  • Department of Agriculture=5 > Agricultural Research Service=005:018
Crossref Funding ( Theme )
  • Agricultural Research Service
Access constraints
otherRestictions
Use constraints
otherRestictions
Spatial representation type
Vector

Spatial resolution

No information provided.
Metadata language
en
Character set
UTF8
Topic category
  • Farming
  • Environment
  • Biota
Begin date
2014-11-01
End date
2014-11-01
N
S
E
W
thumbnail


Reference system identifier
WGS 1984

Spatial representation info

No information provided.
Distribution format
  • TIFF ( )

OnLine resource
Spring canola CV ( WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link )
OnLine resource
Spring canola yield ( WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link )
OnLine resource
Spring pea CV ( WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link )
OnLine resource
Spring pea yield ( WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link )
OnLine resource
Spring wheat CV ( WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link )
OnLine resource
Spring wheat yield ( WWW:LINK-1.0-http--link )
Statement
Discuss amount of knowledge of data quality
Hierarchy level
Dataset
Statement
Discuss knowledge of data acquisation, proceesing and analysis. Add processing steps for details.
File identifier
459d2dba-a346-4e54-9750-ef3178c18f38 XML
Metadata language
en
Character set
UTF8
Date stamp
2019-08-27T16:56:20
Metadata standard name
ISO 19115:2003/19139
Metadata standard version
1.0
Point of contact
  USDA ARS LTAR Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed - Gerardo Armendariz ( * Data Manager )
2000 E Allen Rd , Tucson , AZ , 85719-1596 , United States of America
(520) 647-9345
https://www.ars.usda.gov/pacific-west-area/tucson-az/southwest-watershed-research-center/
 
 

Overviews

overview
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Spatial extent

N
S
E
W
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Keywords

Ag Data Commons Data License Type

Ag Data Commons Keywords
Agroecosystems & Environment
Ag Data Commons Project Name
Long-Term Agroecosystem Research - LTAR R. J. Cook Agronomy Farm
Crossref Funding
Agricultural Research Service
Data Source Affiliation
United States Department of Agriculture > Agricultural Research Service > Long-Term Agroecosystem Research > R.J. Cook Agronomy Farm
FIPS State/County Codes
Washington=53
Federal Program Inventory
Department of Agriculture=5 > National Research=005:040
GCMD Earth Science and Earth Science Services

GCMD Instruments

Hydrologic Unit Codes (HUC)

Köppen Climate Classification

NAL Geospatial Category

NRCS Major Land Resource Areas
Northwestern Wheat and Range Region=B
National Agricultural Library Thesaurus (NALT)
agroecology arid lands canola climate change crop yield crops fallow growers mechanistic models meteorological data oilseeds peas regression analysis simulation models soil water spring spring wheat
OMB Bureau Codes
Department of Agriculture=5 > Agricultural Research Service=005:018
USDA Soil Taxonony

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